Recent data from the Home Office highlights a steep decline in the number of overseas workers and students applying for UK visas. In July 2024, there was a 33% reduction in applications compared to the same period in 2023, with 91,300 visa requests compared to 143,000 in July of the previous year. The decrease is particularly pronounced among skilled workers, health and care professionals, and students.
Impact of Policy Changes on Health and Care Worker Visas
A major factor contributing to this decline is the reform introduced in March 2024, which restricted migrant health and care workers from bringing family members to the UK. As a result, visa applications for these roles dropped by 81% between April and July 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. During this time, only 10,800 applications were made for health and care worker positions. The new policy also led to a 71% decrease in applications for dependents of health and care workers, with 22,200 dependents applying for visas in this period.
Employers Struggle with Skilled Worker Visa Changes
The new visa rules have caused concern among employers, especially in sectors that depend on international talent. HSBC and Deloitte have already withdrawn job offers from foreign graduates due to the stricter visa regulations. The changes to skilled worker visas, including a raised salary threshold from £26,200 to £38,700 and a reduced shortage occupation list, are expected to further impact industries facing labor shortages.
Stable Skilled Worker Applications Amid Policy Uncertainty
Despite the overall decline, skilled worker visa applications from primary applicants remained stable between January 2022 and March 2024, averaging 6,000 applications per month. However, this stability is now under threat due to the recent changes in visa requirements. In response, new Home Secretary Yvette Cooper has called for a review of visa restrictions for skilled workers in key sectors, urging the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) to investigate the reliance on international recruitment in IT, telecommunications, and engineering.
Concerns Raised Over Health and Care Sector Staffing
The sharp drop in visa applications has raised concerns about labor shortages across various sectors, particularly health and social care. Jonathan Beech, founder and managing director of Immpact, pointed out that while the NHS Long Term Workforce Plan aims to increase domestic training and education, immigration remains essential to address the immediate gap in staffing. He noted that the ban on dependents has significantly reduced the appeal of the UK for potential migrant workers.
Call for Balanced Immigration System
Shazia Ejaz, director of campaigns and research at the Recruitment & Employment Confederation (REC), emphasized the need for an immigration system that balances the demands of businesses and society while remaining competitive in attracting international talent. She highlighted that the current focus on reducing immigration numbers is overshadowing the pressing issue of worker shortages and economic inactivity in the UK.
Struggles in Recruiting for the Care Sector
Chetal Patel, head of immigration at Bates Wells, expressed concern over the impact of visa rule changes on the care sector. The restrictions on bringing family members have made the UK less attractive to international students and care workers, contributing to the decline in applications. Patel stressed that training domestic talent alone will not resolve the immediate challenges faced by the care sector.
Challenges Facing Employers in Skilled Sectors
The changes to the skilled worker visa route have left many employers struggling to recruit the talent they need. Smruti Jeyanandhan, senior associate at Bates Wells, highlighted that the ban on dependents has made it nearly impossible for skilled workers with families to relocate to the UK. This, in turn, is deepening the labor crisis in critical sectors like the NHS and care homes.
Long-Term Solutions: Domestic Training vs. International Recruitment
While training domestic talent is often promoted as a solution to the UK’s labor shortages, experts argue that this approach will not address the immediate needs of the economy. Riaz Moola, CEO of HyperionDev, warned that the decline in visa applications could have a severe impact on the UK’s tech sector, which has historically relied on international talent to fill specialized roles. He suggested that the increasing difficulty in recruiting skilled workers may push companies towards automation and AI as a solution.
Potential Legal Challenges and Future Implications
Michael Stokes, partner and head of employment and immigration at HCR Law, noted that legal challenges based on the Human Rights Act could arise due to the restrictions on family reunification. However, he pointed out that potential migrant workers are more likely to seek opportunities in countries with fewer restrictions rather than pursuing legal action in the UK.
Outlook: A Challenging Road Ahead for UK Sectors
As the UK navigates the effects of these policy changes, the full impact on industries that rely heavily on international talent remains uncertain. The early data suggests that sectors like healthcare, technology, and skilled trades are facing significant challenges in attracting the workers they need to sustain their operations.